Rapid and increasing sea levels pose grave threats to coastal communities worldwide.
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In the past two millennia, global sea levels have remained relatively stable. However, the 21st century marked a drastic change - a rapid and continuous rise that's picking up speed.
Scientists are racing to comprehend the implications of this trend, as President Trump takes steps to dismantle agencies responsible for ocean monitoring.
Since 1993, satellites have provided a clear view of the oceans' behavior. Their findings are alarming, revealing an unexpectedly high rate of sea level rise in the last decade. More concerning, though, is the longer-term trend. Over the past three decades, the annual sea level rise has more than doubled, resulting in a 4-inch (10 cm) global increase since 1993.
Benjamin Hamlington, a research scientist in the Sea Level and Ice Group at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, likened the situation to stepping harder on a gas pedal. While other climate indicators fluctuate, global sea level has a consistent rise.
By 2050, scientists expect a 6-inch (15 cm) global average rise, with the U.S seeing up to 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 cm). Beyond 2050, projections become fuzzy, with a wide range of uncertainty. The world could witness an additional 3 feet (1 meter) of sea level rise by 2100, but it could also take several centuries.
The driving force behind this sea level rise is human-induced global warming. Oceans absorb approximately 90% of the excess heat produced by burning fossil fuels, which causes the water to expand as it heats up. Additionally, both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting, contributing to sea level rise. Together, these ice sheets hold enough water to increase global sea levels by around 213 feet (65 meters).
In the last year, the Earth recorded its hottest temperature ever, with ocean warming becoming the primary driver of sea level rise. It's estimated that approximately 65% of sea level rise over the past few decades can be attributed to melting ice sheets.
However, there's a significant uncertainty regarding how quickly ice sheets will react to warming temperatures. It's unclear whether they'll melt steadily or reach a tipping point and rapidly collapse. Given the existing rate of warming, an increase of about 3 feet (1 meter) appears to be already "locked-in."
The US coastlines are experiencing sea level rise at rates higher than the global average, with the Gulf Coast being a major hotspot. Louisiana, in particular, is extremely vulnerable due to a combination of climate change-induced sea level rise and rapid land subsidence. The state has one of the highest rates of land loss in the world, with some areas experiencing sea level rise nearly four times the global rate.
Low-lying Pacific island nations are also on the frontlines of sea level rise, which already poses a significant threat to their existence. By 2050, islands such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji could experience at least 6 inches (15 cm) of sea level rise, even if the world significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
As sea level rises, coastal communities face increased flood exposure, coastal erosion, sewage system issues, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources. In recent years, high tide flooding has become more common along most U.S Atlantic and Gulf coastlines.
Places like Boston are already experiencing coastal flooding during high tides, and areas prone to land subsidence may face constant inundation in the future. Adapting to slow sea level rise is achievable, but rapid changes could make adaptation extremely challenging, particularly for vulnerable communities.
[1] Source: NSIDC, Goddard Space Flight Center, and University of Hawaii[2] Source: NOAA, National Ocean Service[3] Source: World Bank Group, Climate change impacts on delicate island communities[4] Source: Nature Climate Change, Sea level rise and its impact on nuclear facilities[5] Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Existential risks from the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet[6] Source: Climate Central, Special Report: Risky Business‐The Economic Consequences of Climate Change in the United States
- Politicians must inherently consider the implications of sea level rise, particularly the potential exacerbation by human-induced climate change, when formulating policies for health-and-wellness, mental-health, and environmental-science sectors.
- Concurrently, the advancements in science and technology, such as satellites, have been essential in understanding climate-change-induced sea level rise, with scientists warning of increased flood exposure and coastal erosion.
- As global sea levels continue to rise, the focus needs to be extended beyond the physical environment to encompass the social and economic impacts on coastal communities, emphasizing the importance of investing in health-and-wellness, mental-health, and environmental-science programs to ensure resilience and adaptation.
