Intense Heatwave and Excessive Rainfall: Unraveling the Climate Disorder in Almaty
Living in Almaty, Kazakhstan, residents know all too well about the unpredictable and extreme weather swings. It's no longer a surprise to see temperatures skyrocket to +39 degrees one day and plummet to +20 the next, followed by heavy rainstorms. This wild climate wreaks havoc on traffic, causes more road accidents, and puts a strain on communal services.
"Brace yourself, this is just the beginning," ecologists warn.
Why does the weather in Almaty act like a roller coaster?
Various experts, including ecologists, climate scientists, and meteorologists, offer differing explanations for Almaty's climate shifts. Yet, they all agree that global warming is the driving force behind the change.
"Almaty used to have four climate zones," explains Timur Eleusizov, the chairman of the public association Kaz Eco Patrol and an ecologist. "But now, a fifth has moved in - subtropics. We're all feeling and seeing it with the intense heatwaves and heavy downpours."
Global climate change has already caused an average temperature range increase of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius in Kazakhstan, according to Eleusizov.
"These hot spells and violent rainstorms are all part of the same picture - the impact of human activities on ecological processes," says Eleusizov. A study conducted by scientists from multiple countries 13 years ago predicted that Kazakhstan would face severe water scarcity[1]. Now, it appears we're witnessing the unfolding of that forecast, as 60% of the country's glaciers have already melted.[2]
Almaty's climate was once considered sharply continental, with a larger temperature gap between winter and summer and less precipitation. Now, it's simply continental.
When weather turns chaotic, meteorologists point to global climate changes
Meteorologists like Daulet Kisebayev, the press secretary of the Almaty branch of RGP "Kazhydromet," also attribute Almaty's extreme weather events to global climate change. However, it's still premature to panic.
"Almaty is no stranger to extremes," insists Kisebayev. "The city is nestled between mountains and steppes, two opposing air masses collide, causing scorching heat in the morning and stormy skies in the afternoon."
Sometimes, this changeover occurs early in July, driving temperatures up to +40 degrees Celsius, and then, as meteorologists say, thunderclouds may develop due to internal convection.
Is there a silver lining in the chaotic weather clouds?
The science of global climate isn't yet able to provide definitive answers about changes in Almaty's and Kazakhstan's weather and climate patterns. However, climate researchers continue to investigate and outline possible scenarios.
Scientists in Kazakhstan are working on climate change scenarios, looking at human influences on the climate system, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, and other factors[3]. Unfortunately, current scenarios indicate that human influence on the climate system continues and the temperature increase trend persists[4].
As temperatures heat up, climate scientists expect the extremity of weather events to escalate in Almaty.
"A general upward trend in air temperature characterizes almost all months," notes Svetlana Dolgikh, the head of the climate research department at RGP "Kazhydromet."
By comparing temperature regimes over 30-year periods, Dolgikh's team reveals that temperatures have steadily increased in every month.
If you compare the temperatures for the two 30-year periods, February and March have each warmed by approximately 2.2 degrees Celsius, while temperatures have risen least in December, May, and July (by 0.7 to 0.8 degrees Celsius). Interestingly, the absolute minimum temperatures for every month except April 2003 are from the last century[4]. The absolute maximum temperatures for half of the months have been surpassed in this century - the record high of 43 degrees Celsius was set in 1983[4].
Regrettably, there is no discernible trend in the annual precipitation, the frequency of heavy rainfall, or the maximum precipitation in a single day in Almaty over the past 60 years. Nevertheless, like most of Kazakhstan, the city is characterized by high variability in annual precipitation[2].
"We live in a climate with massive temperature differences between the warmest and coldest months and the diurnal temperature range," clarifies the climatologist.
If you're interested in learning more about staying cool in Almaty during the summer or ensuring you're adequately prepared for emergencies during extreme weather events, check out the following articles:- Staying Cool in Almaty: Summer Survival Tips for 2022- Weather Emergency Preparedness: Guidelines from the EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER
- Global climate change is a significant factor contributing to the unpredictable weather in Almaty, as explained by Timur Eleusizov, the chairman of Kaz Eco Patrol and an ecologist.
- Meteorologists like Daulet Kisebayev, the press secretary of the Almaty branch of RGP "Kazhydromet," also attribute Almaty's extreme weather events to global climate change, setting the stage for an escalation in the extremity of weather events.
- Climate scientists predict that a general upward trend in air temperature characterizes almost all months in Almaty, further emphasizing the impact of climate change on local weather patterns. However, no clear trends have been identified in annual precipitation, the frequency of heavy rainfall, or the maximum precipitation in a single day, highlighting the need for continued research and adaptation strategies in the face of this changing climate.
