Hydro-Québec's long-term reservoir safety assured
Quebec's hydroelectric reservoirs are facing a challenge due to two consecutive dry years, resulting in record-low water levels. This situation is not unprecedented, as such dry series have been recurring since the beginning of Quebec's hydroelectric adventure.
Last January, Hydro-Québec's reservoirs contained the lowest amount of water in 20 years, akin to levels last seen in 2005. This has prompted researchers at McGill University and Université du Québec to study whether seasonal water reserves in Quebec will become increasingly irregular in the future.
Climatologists predict that in northern Quebec, precipitation will increase in all seasons. However, they also warn that climate change multiplies extreme meteorological events, such as heavier downpours in summer and richer torrents of water in autumn. This could lead to an increase in average water inputs to Quebec's hydroelectric facilities.
Elyse Fournier, an expert in climate change and hydrology at Hydro-Québec, predicts a 6 to 11% increase in water inputs to northern reservoirs by 2050 compared to 2010. This increase in river flows is expected to offset the increased evaporation, despite the warmer temperatures causing higher evaporation losses at the reservoirs and watersheds in northern Quebec.
The state-owned company, Hydro-Québec, has levers to control the situation. They can modulate exports outside Quebec and draw from multi-year reservoirs like Caniapiscau and Manic-5. Exports to Massachusetts (9.45 TWh per year) are set to begin at the end of 2025, while exports to New York (10.4 TWh) will start a year later.
Hydro-Québec's current forecasts predict that the energy stock of reservoirs will rise to around 105 TWh by January 2026. Winter will shorten but remain cold enough to generate large amounts of snow, which should exceed those of the last decades.
Despite the challenges, Daniel Nadeau, a professor of engineering at Laval University, expects an increase in precipitation throughout Quebec. Researchers are actively working on understanding if annual precipitation totals are doomed to become more erratic and if the multi-year cycles of reservoirs will intensify.
Pierre-Marc Rondeau, responsible for production planning at Hydro-Québec, notes that there is still some uncertainty regarding the amount of rainfall for the remaining three and a half months of the year. However, a study by a laboratory in the Department of Energy in the United States concluded that river flows would increase by an average of 9% by 2050, and hydroelectric power production would be improved by 4%.
This text was updated after publication to add a precision.
Read also:
- Hospital's Enhancement of Outpatient Services Alleviates Emergency Department Strain
- Increased Chikungunya infections in UK travelers prompt mosquito bite caution
- Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister holds discussions on the prevailing circumstances in Almaty
- In the state, Kaiser Permanente boasts the top-ranked health insurance program
